Saturday, April 03, 2010

Funny how peoples views differ

After my recent post about sharks bumhunting the HU tables, Ben Grundy who plays heads up PLO has said the same thing. Reading ben's posts it is quite funny how people's views differ when you move up limits and get better at poker. He mentions that he never plays the nosebleed stakes. I know what he means as in Ivey's Room on Full Tilt they have up to $500/$1000 stakes, however he still plays $50/$100 which I would class to be serious nosebleed stakes.

I was having a look at some graphs on players winnings recently and still can't work out the effect variance has on play. I think now that variance has an affect on lower skilled players but the better you get the less if effects you. Take the player i mentioned above. He has won $7.8 million in around 350,000 hands and his graph for profit is as straight and constant as you would wish for. He wins and wins constantly. I have no doubt he will continue to win at a similar rate for as long as he plays. There has been talk of 300,000 hand break even runs on the raise the river forum which i also understand. However do i think you can win millions just being on a 400,000 hand heater and using proper bankroll management techniques?? I don't think so. Ivey always wins, I was watching Antonius batter ZeeJustin the other day. I bet Antonius doesn't get as badly affected by variance as us fish do?

What do you think?


Littleacornman said...

Antonius is down nearly $4m this year ( according to guys on 2+2 pokercast) and he's probably one of the top 5 players in the world.Hastings ran good to win $4m from Isildur1.No escaping variance at any level.

A 100k hands break even stretch would probably only be a minor blip on a winning players graph over a large sample size.

United113 said...

They just must not moan about it as much as i do then :-)