I don't understand variance at all can someone explain it?
I understand the basis of it but somethings don't make sense.
If i was tossing a coin 1000 times then after lots of flips the amount of heads and tails would even out. However if i was betting someone completely random amounts each time that we fliped the coins then how can that ever even out?
In poker today. AA first hand or a tourney, all in and i lose and the result is i'm out that SNG and have lost $3. Later on different tables I've been dealt AA twice more, winning small pots from low stacks going all in both times. Now even though i have a few more chips I haven't won anything from those results. Now If Aces will win a certain percentage of the time, what if that percentage you lose by is worth 10 times the amount you win by? How does that come into Variance?
If, when heads up at the final table of the WSOP, you are equal with chips with the other player and you get dealt AA and get beaten, the difference in prize money is millions of dollars. Would someone make that back up in the future by making the right decisions and believing in variance?
So if you keep making the right decisions things will work out? I can understand that if every decision was equal, but they arn't.
I also think it's easier to lose money at poker than win it. Again if you dump a buy in a NL10 with AA, how many times would you need to dealt that hand again to win the money back? What if everytime you lose with AA you get stacked and the times you win you win a small pot? How does that come into variance?
I really don't understand it
People at he $3 limits make it a minefield going all in with trash and calling raises with anything. I will let any of you log into my account and play 10 Five seater $3 SNG and see if it is possible to win consistantly from it. Just ask and i'll give you my log in details...